Scenario Analysis
Apple is more than an American company; it is a global entity with a massive footprint in China.
$64.38 BILLION
Total revenue generated in Greater China (FY 2025).
While the Americas lead, China represents 15.5% of total sales—and a disproportionate share of premium margins.
A total ban isn't just a loss of sales; it's a catastrophic valuation event.
Macro-strategists anticipate a 25-30% collapse. In just two sessions in 2023, rumors vaporized $200B.
History shows how quickly a giant can fall in the Chinese market.
2013
20%
Today
<1%
Samsung's dominance was erased by a mix of geopolitical backlash and local innovation. For Apple, the "loyalty moat" may be thinner than it looks.
Why hasn't China pulled the trigger yet? The answer lies in the workforce.
5 MILLION
Jobs in China
This includes 3M physical supply chain workers and 2M App Store developers. A ban would be a self-inflicted wound to China's labor market.
Geopolitics is a game of reciprocity. If Apple is banned in Beijing, what happens to Chinese giants in D.C.?
A ban would likely trigger counter-tariffs or bans on Lenovo, DJI, and TikTok, vaporizing billions in Chinese-American trade overnight.
The "Nuclear Option" goes both ways. Trade dependency is the only thing keeping the peace.
It's not just about hardware. Apple's "Services" moat is hitting a geopolitical ceiling.
Services Growth Stake
22% YoY
Global Services Growth vs 4% in China due to regulatory friction.
Without China's App Store revenue, Apple's high-margin services story begins to decouple.
When the elephant fights, the grass gets trampled. Chinese suppliers are trapped in the middle.
Luxshare
74%
Apple Dependency
Foxconn
50%+
Revenue exposure
For names like Goertek and OFILM, losing Apple proved near-fatal. The entire Shenzhen tech cluster is built on this leverage.
The Apple-China relationship is a "Cold War" symbiosis. Neither can afford to walk away, but neither can afford to stay the same.
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